Mayor Hou's "Cup and Water Theory" Testing the Waters？Cross-strait Discourse Leaves Unanswered Questions
United Daily News, April 28, 2023
The time to nominate its presidential candidate is nearing for the Kuomintang (KMT). After Terry Gou, founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn), announced his candidacy, he has been moving very fast the first 30 days in setting up campaign teams and field offices. While Mr. Gou went to Changhua to meet with Speaker Hsieh Tien-lin of the Changhua County Council, Mayor Hou Yu-ih of New Taipei was tied to the New Taipei City Council and could not go campaigning. Mayor Hou has tried to use the opportunity of the interpellation to announce some of his campaign topics. The “cup and water” theory announced yesterday has stirred up discussion as to who is the brain behind this proposition.
This is not the first time that Hou Yu-ih offered his cross-strait position. As early as April 4, Hou mentioned that he would “produce a bold and decisive discourse after thorough consideration and move forward with full force.” Does “bold and decisive” mean different from the cross-strait position of the KMT or former President Ma Ying-jeou? While people were speculating what he meant, Mayor Hou said the next day that he “would consolidate consensus to promote peace and prosperity of the Republic of China.”
Later, Mayor Hou mentioned “safeguaring democracy with peace” at Yunlin and Chiayi fellowship gatherings. On his late April Singapore visit, he had expressed “Taiwan should play the role of a regional stabilizer” and stressed that “peace is our only option” and “there will be nothing without security.” Yesterday at the City Council, Mayor Hou put forth the cup and water theory, in which the Republic of China is the cup and Taiwan is the water, neither can survive without the other as water spills when the cup is broken.
Mayor Hou mentioned his theory again today by emphasizing the Republic of China and Taiwan are inseparable like cup and water, citing another analogy that no egg can remain intact if bird’s nest is overturned. Mayor Hou stated that “the Republic of China is our country and Taiwan is our home.” He added that we all grew up on this land and we all are Taiwanese kids. In growing up on this land we work hard to look after Taiwan and take care of the Republic of China. We make the international society see the Republic of China and witness Taiwan making strides toward the world with full confidence.
“Taiwan is water and the Republic of China is the cup. When the cup is intact the water stays and when the cup is broken the water spills.” This theory of cup and water can apply to both the KMT and DPP. In August 2015, Vice Chairman Huang Nien of the United Daily News released an article in which he states “One cannot cross an abyss with two small steps,” hoping to remind the DPP and its then-presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen that, for the DPP, deciding whether to accept the 1992 Consensus is equivalent to choosing if they will circumvent the Constitution of the Republic of China.
Other than quoting Huang Nien’s cup and water theory, Mayor Hou has not further elaborated his position or touched on the core of the cross-strait issue, leaving a lot of unanswered questions. Many political observers believe that Mayor Hou is going to release his ideas one at a time in order to test the water while strengthening his discourse on cross strait relations.
On the question of whether Mayor Hou will come up with a brand new statement on cross-strait discourse, people close to Hou said the worst thing to do on cross-strait or U.S.-Taiwan relations is an “earth-shattering” statement. It is unlikely that Hou would make a statement of that kind. Hou’s core message will be “the interdependence theory,” in which Hou said “the Republic of China is our country and Taiwan is our home. Family sometimes argues at home yet when they go out, they are the Republic of China and belong to the same family.”
People close to Hou said the cup and water theory is used just to describe the interdependence relationship. “A home only exists when we have a country, but a home builds the country. Neither can live without the other.” On the question whether Hou would mention the 1992 Consensus, people close to Hou stated that he has already mentioned his cross-strait position is to “honor the spirit of the 1992 Consensus to put aside differences and find common ground.” Executive Director Hsiao Hsu-tsen of the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation also said this position is “basically in line with the KMT’s party platform.”
Mayor Hou has chosen to play it safe in cross-strait discourse. People close to Hou hinted that Hou’s core idea of “We are called the Republic of China, and Taiwan is our home” is a decisive move to cut the Gordian knot. Hou will never offer an earth-shattering new statement against the KMT’s party platform.
Hou’s main opponent Terry Gou introduced the concept of “using technology to make friends around the world.” Mr. Gou aims to demonstrate his ability to expand Taiwan’s international space and secure Taiwan’s safety. Mr. Gou emphasizes that mainland China faces many internal challenges and needs to develop its economy and attacking Taiwan is not its top priority. “If Terry Gou was elected president, the PLA warplanes would stop encircling Taiwan,” he said.
Terry Gou has started a 30-day trip around the island to consult with political figures, senior journalists and PR firms to repackage his public image. He has also reached out to religious groups and business associations with an aim to support his run for presidency. As the race between Gou and Hou has started, both of them are privately seeking the support of key figures in the KMT. Neither one of them has showed any signs of slowing down. The race has also spread from assembling people to addressing issues. The final outcome is left for God to decide.